In this paper, we investigate how the innovation expectations of public financiers are related to realized patents. The analysis is based on a novel data set of collaborative R&D projects subsidized by the Finnish Agency of Technology and Innovation (Tekes) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) during the period 2000–2004. Innovation expectations are measured using reports submitted by Tekes experts during ex ante assessments of projects. Our probit model results reveal that Tekes' patent expectations are positively related to realized patents for projects led by private firms (but not by public organizations). For large organizations, Tekes' innovation expectations are better at predicting patenting.