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Ukrainan sodan vaikutukset äärioikeiston väkivaltakykyyn Suomessa

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Ukrainan sodan vaikutukset äärioikeiston väkivaltakykyyn Suomessa

The security situation in Europe and Finland has been described as more serious than at any time since the Cold War. The competition between the great powers has intensified and the rules-based international system has weakened. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 radically changed the security environment. The war in the region has created opportunities to increase the violent capacity of extremist groups through combat experience, acquiring weapons and making contacts. The research takes place in an unfinished case. Only a few studies have been done on its effects on the extreme right's capacity for violence. Based on the lack of research and the publications made by the authorities, the need for research is obvious. The purpose of the study is to find out how the extreme right's capacity for violence is seen in Finland after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The research is empirical and qualitative. It applies a phenomenographic research approach. In the theory part, the references were previous studies, official publications and news. Research data was collected by interviewing authorities and other key actors. The interviews were conducted as semi-structured interviews, but the method was partially extended to narrative interviews. The analysis of the data was done phenomenographically using the ATLAS software and the goal was to create a collective description of the phenomenon. Based on the research, the effects of the war on the extreme right's capacity for violence are divided into skills acquired from Ukraine or Finland, creating contacts and acquiring weapons etc. The skills acquired by foreign fighters and the creation of contacts have already had an effect. In Finland, the extreme right's own training accounts create opportunities for developing the capacity for violence. The opportunities created by voluntary national defense training must also be taken into account. There has been no significant change in violence resources. No weapons or explosives have been smuggled from the conflict zone to Finland. The arming of the extreme right hasn't shown itself to be significant either. The threat of terrorism in Finland has not significantly increased after invasion. Also, no visible changes have been observed. However, the potential for violence has increased and authorities are identifying a wide range of threats to be prepared for. They are expected to appear probably only after the war. The research confirmed previous research results. It also added information about the effects of the war in Ukraine on the extreme right's capacity for violence, while taking into account national peculiarities.

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